Sunday, November 30, 2008

Last Day of Hurricane Season 2008!


Goodbye Fay, Gustav, Hanna & Ike. It was an action packed August & September with these 4 storms dancing mostly around Florida although Fay made landfall a record setting four different times.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Florida Avoids Hurricanes AGAIN!!

Here's a recap of the 2008 season, by the numbers:

16 – Named storms

8 – Hurricanes

7 – Tropical storms

1 – Sub-tropical storm

5 – Category 3 or stronger hurricanes

$27.8 million – Federal Emergency Management aid in Florida for damage from Tropical Storm Fay

27.65 inches – Most rain recorded from Tropical Storm Fay, 8 miles northwest of Melbourne

0.72 inches – Rain recorded at Tampa International Airport from Tropical Storm Fay

4 – Number of times Tropical Storm Fay made landfall in Florida

18 – Days Hurricane Bertha lasted, the longest-lived July hurricane on record

3 – Consecutive seasons since Florida has been hit by a hurricane

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Saturday, November 08, 2008

We were supposed to be on Grand Cayman this weekend!

Here's what we are missing click here

On-going news on Paloma.


Our company has a good track record of planning Conventions that predict Hurricane movement. Two years ago we were scheduled for Cancun when Wilma came through.

Want to know where to avoid next year? Keep checking back. I'll let you know where our next convention is scheduled!

:-)

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Tropical disturbance brewing in the Caribbean

Tropical disturbance brewing in the Caribbean: "Tropical disturbance brewing in the Caribbean
> Posted by Ken Kaye at 7:24 AM



Here it is, early November, a time when we should be formulating Thanksgiving plans, savoring the cooler weather and, of course, celebrating the historic election of Barack Obama.

Yet, at least in this small corner of the world, we’re still keeping an eye on a tropical system.

The same disturbance that’s been lingering in the Caribbean near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua for the past couple of days is getting better organized.

The National Hurricane Center gives it a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next day. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

For now, the system does not appear to be a threat to Florida. Most computer models project it will pass south of the state as it moves northeast.

Those projections could change, however, if it develops a closed circulation. So we’ll continue to keep an eye on it."

Monday, October 13, 2008

Storms strengthening south and east of Florida

Storms off Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic are expected to strengthen in the next 48 hours, with at least one projected to become a hurricane, but neither is pointed toward Florida at the moment.

Monday, October 06, 2008

TS Marco in Mexico


Whew....read my text message alert incorrectly this afternoon. Missed the "no" in "Marco forms off Mexico Coast, no threat to Florida". After a few minutes of concern while driving home in an unrelated pouring rain storm this afternoon, I checked a couple of websites and realized my error.

Less than 2 months to go in the season and we're headed into the time when the Gulf of Mexico is most active.

BTW, Congratulations Rays! 3 games to 1 winners over the White Sox in ALDS.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Ike Photos & Video

Photos

Video

Galveston Island Flooding & Fires viewed from a Coast Guard HU-25 Falcon Jet

In Galveston, at least 17 structures had been leveled, officials said, 10 due to fire. The destruction included the Balinese Room a landmark former speakeasy and casino on a wooden pier extending 600 feet out into the gulf. In its 1940s heyday, the Balinese Room had seen shows by Frank Sinatra, Bob Hope and the Marx Brothers.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Ike Headed Towards Mission Control?

From Gannett Newspaper's FloridaToday.com

Ike from the Space Station

Galveston Hurricane of 1900

Links to follow Hurricane Ike -- coverage from the storm...

Hurricane Ike continuing coverage on: Twitter

Continuing live coverage from Austin-American Statesman reporters on the ground in Houston ---including live video from their car at 7pm EDT

More Ike tweets from Twitter

Houston Chronicle Tropical Weather Blog

User submitted photos from Galveston Wow!


Thursday, September 11, 2008

Hurricane Free Florida - Texas Top Target Historically

First weekly Governor Crist press conference IN WEEKS without having to start by talking about a hurricane!

Fay & Hanna soaked and swiped; Gustav and Ike came around the bend and up into the Gulf.

Our best wishes to those in the path of Ike, a Texas-sized storm! Here's an interesting history of Tropical activity in Texas

Some highlights:

In 2001, Tropical Storm Allison — not even a hurricane — stalled out and dumped nearly 37 inches of rain on the Port of Houston over a five-day period, according to the National Weather Service. It killed 22 people and was the costliest natural disaster in Houston's history.

In 1983, Hurricane Alicia killed 21 Texans. Wind gusts of hurricane force in downtown Houston littered the streets with broken glass as windows broke in tall buildings.

In 1961, massive Hurricane Carla whipped up peak winds of 175 mph. Only 46 Texas residents died, largely because about 250,000 people had evacuated.

A 1919 hurricane came ashore south of Corpus Christi as a Category 3 on Sept. 14. The death toll is estimated at between 600 and 900 people, including more than 500 lost on ten ships that sunk or were reported missing.

Between 1900 and 2004, Florida was hit by a total of 64 hurricanes, Texas absorbed 38, and North Carolina took the brunt of 29.

Friday, September 05, 2008

Hanna Passes; Ike Looms


Hanna's outer band rain didn't quite make it to Tampa Bay today as was a possibility, marking the third storm this season that passed by us without much impact. We had a partly sunny day here with a nice breeze from the east.












However, Ike is our focus this weekend as we watch the "cone of uncertainty" continue to evolve. The latest advisory has the center of the cone continuing to move west into the Gulf of Mexico and curling north past Florida.

I would expect that Sunday will be the day of decision based on where Ike is and the forecasts. I'm supposed to travel to Virginia & Philly Tuesday/Wednesday but I'll be making a last minute decision on Monday depending.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Ike - Yikes!

Just watched, who I would call Tampa Bay's most accurate tropical storm analyst, ABC Action News (WFTS -28) Chief Meteorologist Denis Phillips, predict that Hanna will brush the east coast of Florida, not be well organized, and just throw some rain at us Thursday night into Friday here on the far west coast of Florida. The east coast would get much more of the impact of storm unless the path changes dramatically.

Governor Crist has declared a state of emergency ahead of Hanna.

He says that Ike's the one to watch as it is relatively small and compact, the same way Andrew was 10 years ago when it was a week out like Ike is.

Oh yeah, then there is Josephine.....

Monday, September 01, 2008

Gustav, Hanna, & Ike Displayed on a Google Maps Mashup


Very Cool representation of Mother Nature's current triple play from Weather Underground

Meanwhile a beautiful day in Tampa Bay today with just enough breeze to cool and reasonably active surf that brought out the boogie boards, surfers, and sightseers. Overnight, rain subsided but rough waters in Tampa Bay caused some splashing of salt water over intercoastal sea walls on Clearwater Beach.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Gustav outer band glancing Tampa Bay


Just catching the edge of this band. Light rain falling.

Have had wind all day including some gusts that got my trees' attention (and mine!)



We're 270 miles from the center of the eye as of 2pm today yet we're feeling the effect of Gustav's wind, rain, and clouds!



5:27pm update: Worst of the band is in southern end of the Tampa Bay area affecting Sarasota and Bradenton primarily. Looks like heaviest weather is offshore.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Gustav - New Orleans Contraflow Traffic Web Cams & Social Media Links

Will be interesting watching these New Orleans webcams starting Sunday>

Gustav's predicted impact on Gulf of Mexico oil production.

New Orleans Radio

Gustav Updated Tracking Map

Get a ride out of Gustav's way on craigslist??!!

New Orleans Mayor says Gustav is "Storm of the Century". Orders Evacuation. Excellent recap of current status from the New York Times

Gustav Social Networking (Ning) Aggregation Site

Gustav on Twitter

Gustav will be "Social Media's" Coming Out Party



Digg!

Gustav - A big storm with a big reach - Already!



Extending 175 miles from the center, feeder Bands already soaking us. Clearwater Beach streets were full of water at 2pm today with more to come.... Water has subsided, as it normally does after the drenching.




Should be a gray and wet holiday weekend here on the west coast of the Sunshine State.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Gustav & Hanna Update

Hanna is an interesting storm in that she's not sure where she wants to go yet, but Florida is in the target for now. Watching steering currents to see where she goes next week.

Seems like Gustav is also very susceptible to changing weather patterns that will affect direction and strength but no doubt will impact the southern Gulf Coast of the U.S. early next week.

For me, I still have all my yard "stuff" (chairs, planters, etc) still in the garage from the initial threat of Fay.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Profile of the last Hurricane Gustav (2002)

From Wikipedia: Hurricane Gustav was a Category 2 hurricane that paralleled the East Coast of the United States in September during the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the seventh named storm and first hurricane of the season. Initially a subtropical depression north of the Bahamas, Gustav passed slightly to the east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a tropical storm before moving northeastward and making two landfalls in Atlantic Canada as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm was responsible for one death and $100,000 in damage, mostly in North Carolina. The interaction between Gustav and a non-tropical system produced strong winds that caused an additional $240,000 (2002 USD) in damage in New England, but this damage was not directly attributed to the hurricane.

Gustav spent the early part of its life as a subtropical storm, and was the first such storm to be named from the current lists by the National Hurricane Center. Previously, subtropical storms were not given names. The cyclone was also the latest-forming first hurricane of the season since 1941.

Category 3 with 120+ mph winds?

Hurricane Gustav - This could shape up as a bad one!

Oil prices sure to spike. Residents of Fay-soaked Gulf Coast have to be very anxious and just the thought of landfall near New Orleans is frightful. National media will really jump all over this post DNC in Denver.

The older I get the more I hate reading: "There is a possibility that Gustav could become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane sometime Friday or Saturday and be a Category 3 hurricane when it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast need to watch the progress of this storm for early next week, especially the central and western Gulf Coast areas."




Links that got my attention:
Washington Post - Gustav could become a giant

Monday, August 25, 2008

TS Gustav Born Today; Hurricane Tomorrow?

Chances are the storm will strengthen overnight and then work its way into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and could strengthen further to become a major hurricane. Models show generally westward movement for the time being but already Tampa Bay TV is suggesting close monitoring later in the week as Gustav's ultimate general landfall destination is uncertain at this point.

Tropical Depression Forms - Headed To Florida - Again!?



Just as we're finally drying out and the sunshine has returned to its namesake state, another storm is forming with a west/northwest bias. Would become Gustav if/when it strengthens to Tropical Storm/Hurricane status.

Tis the season....

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Fay historic rainmaker but....

....keep your eye on the Atlantic. 3 tropical waves active heading into the peak of the season!

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Fay Affects Entire State (Except Us)

About the only counties in the state not impacted with warnings or watches is the mid-west coast anchored by the Tampa Bay area!

Fay forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon


Northeastern Florida and then headed west north west into South Georgia.

Meanwhile, first squall from Fay hit Tampa Bay a few minutes ago, but nothing to be concerned about.

Warnings Canceled in Tampa Bay

TS Fay makes landfall south of Naples headed N/NE. Warnings canceled in the Tampa Bay area and as predicted last night, today should be just a typical Summertime day with some rain, thundershowers, and a few gusts of wind. Schools and Government offices closed, nearly 100 arriving and departing flights out of Tampa International Airport canceled, but precautionary measures are necessary when a storm like this is approaching and can take one of many paths.

Meanwhile, there is another tropical wave out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near latitude 35 west that could get organized and we'll start watching.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Fay No Hurricane - West of Tampa, No Problem!

Our ABC television affiliate predicts perhaps NO rain or wind west of Tampa (that's where we are) meaning St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Pinellas County won't get the energy from Fay which will move east across the state and perhaps back into the Atlantic Ocean up near Jacksonville Could go regroup and then move west across the state or die out.

Pinellas County will wait until tomorrow morning's 5am advisory before lifting some of mandatory evacuations scheduled to go into effect at 6am. Hillsborough County (Tampa) to do something similar.

South of Tampa Bay will get the brunt of the storm down near Naples, so I'm going to bed and hope things don't change over night.

8pm Tropical Storm Fay Advisory - Northbound Now!

Indications are landfall near Naples and then up the interior of the state throwing most of the rain and weather towards the East Coast sparing us in Tampa Bay. However, the path could change just as Charlie did in 2004. All important 11pm update and then we'll see where Fay is situated in the morning.

My employer has told us not to report Tuesday. Schools are cancelled and this is could end up being a minimal event with just some wind gusts and a healthy dose of rain...but....

Took some precautionary measures today and brought in the potential airborne objects, bought some ice and filled up the car. Will be glad if it's all for naught. In the meantime discovered the best Hurricane data dashboard thus far with our local Fox affiliate . Multiple satellite and radar views, forecast tracks, spaghetti models, live video from their weather center, webcams and even nonsensical scrolling chat. Who are these people??!

Spaghetti Still Leaning East of Tampa Bay!

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from MyFoxHurricane.com

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from MyFoxHurricane.com



Encouraging for those of us in Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from MyFoxHurricane.com

Today will tell a lot

We have most of our hurricane supplies set. Need some ice, fill up the car, get some cash and later today make final preparations including securing all outside items that could become airborne in a storm.

The track is pushing farther east but the storm looks like it may be pretty wide. The stronger side of the storm is on the east so that's a better track than brushing the west coast and having all that energy right on us. The center of the "cone" predicts landfall north of Fort Meyers and south of Port Charlotte, not too far from where 2004 storms hit, and then tracking north east of Tampa Bay.

Today is the first day of school for many. Tuesday will probably be a "hurricane day" - our version of a "snow day" for you Northerners....

Stay tuned.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

State of Emergency Declared in Florida

Governor Crist issues a wake up call, but at 3pm today, my Lowe's customers are still asleep!





We are still in the center of the cone with Tuesday the most likely day of concern here in the Tampa Bay area and most of the west coast of Florida.
Keep going west Fay!!











Digg!

Fay to Choose West Side of Florida?!



As of 5am this morning, the cone of uncertainty is leaning West. Fay's travels this weekend over Cuba and warmer waters will have impact on direction and intensity.

May have to get the wood for my windows out and ready on Sunday just in case.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Fay - d Away!



Something to distract us this weekend.

By Monday she should have picked a side of Florida and perhaps graduated to a Hurricane.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Potential Hurricane this Weekend??!

Accuweather continues to closely monitor two areas of showers and thunderstorms. Both areas could become organized tropical systems within the next couple of days.

The first feature is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 15.5 north, 55 west and should continue to move west northwest during the next few days. If the system continues to organize it should become a depression sometime on Wednesday or Thursday♦.

Long range computer information takes the system into the southern Bahamas on Saturday and Sunday. Computer forecasts suggest this system should become a storm and could become a hurricane this weekend.

The limiting factors on strengthening will be lingering dry air to the north and some shear to the north and west of the system. If the system moves slow the shear will not be a factor. The Atlantic ridge in place over the western Atlantic is forecast to build stronger to the west and over Florida. If this happens then the system will turn more westerly into Cuba or the Straits of Florida early next week. But the long range ideas on this system are highly uncertain and are highly dependent on the orientation and strength of the Atlantic ridge.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Accuweather - Two "Features" could become tropical systems this week

Atlantic Becoming More Active (August 11th 2008 at 9:30pm)

We are keeping a close eye on two features in the southern North Atlantic that might become organized tropical systems within the next few days. One feature is located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles along 47 west with a broad area of low pressure centered near 13 north. This low pressure area and the clouds, showers and thunderstorms attempting to wrap around it have been moving west-northwest at about 10-15kts. Computer simulations suggest this feature will attempt to organize over the next few days and could become an organized tropical feature by the time it nears the Leeward islands on Thursday. Surface temperatures are near 80 degrees Fahrenheit and upper-level winds are favorable. The only limiting factor is drier air to the north and northwest. If this dry air gets drawn into the low pressure area this could prevent thunderstorms from wrapping around the system.

The second feature we are watching is located along 30 west with a surface low near 11 north. This is roughly 450 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Visible satellite images during Monday afternoon were showing a swirling cloud mass including some banding clouds. Banding clouds suggests convective showers and thunderstorms are arcing around a common center, a sign the system is trying to organize in the lower and upper levels. If this banding process continues, the system could become a tropical depression within the next day or two. The system is moving west northwest at about 10-15kts over relatively warm water. It will pass over an area of cooler water over the next 24 hours then should be in favorable warm water. The system is riding on the northern fringes of stronger wind shear which could have some affect on its development. But the shear should relax as it moves farther east. If this system can outrun the shear and move into warmer water, then it could become a depression within the next day or two.


By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Saturday, August 09, 2008

More storms early this season than all but 4 years of the last 150

Yikes!

Last week experts raised their predictions for this year's Atlantic hurricane activity.

Meanwhile, Accuweather says keep an eye on a tropical wave coming off Africa coast Sunday for potential development next week.

Sunday, August 03, 2008

Tropical Storm Edouard forms in Gulf of Mexico

I don't think the name "Edouard" is in new baby circulation anymore. But if you must see who the famous Edouards are, look here .


Digg!

1 in the Gulf - 2 in the Atlantic?

August starts the peak of the season! To start the month, activity has churned up in the Gulf over the weekend and there are some tropical waves of interest out in the Atlantic.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Hello Dolly!

Too easy!

4th Storm forms quickly this afternoon headed for the Yucatan.

While watching Cristobal - Keep an eye on the Gulf - Possible Depression Forming

From Accuweather: An area of low pressure continues to slowly organize across the western Caribbean Sea. It is moving to the west-northwest at around 15 knots and is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Environmental conditions are becoming more favorable for development and this system could become a tropical depression within 24 hours. It should cross the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and then the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, perhaps reaching the upper coast of Mexico by midweek.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Bermuda issues tropical storm warning

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) -- Bermuda is preparing for heavy rains and wind this weekend as Hurricane Bertha churned slowly across the Atlantic.

The Bermuda Weather Service issued a tropical storm warning Saturday morning and the outer bands of Bertha threatened to sideswipe the island on Sunday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the Category 1 hurricane was chugging north at about 2 mph (4 kmh). The storm remained mostly stationary on Saturday, and even forecasters hit a lull: "After a week or so ... I am running out of things to say about Bertha," read one official report.

Surf's Up!

....on east coast of Florida. Big Bertha stalls east of Bermuda but many are headed to beaches from Jacksonville to Miami.

Monday, July 07, 2008

Anticipating a Turn




Accuweather says Bertha may further strengthen but eventually turn north and weaken or perhaps even stall....

But then there are those who hope Bertha comes a bit closer to the mainland.

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Bertha expected to become Hurricane

Warmer water will trump wind sheer and previously expected turn North timeline is now unknown. Anticipate the media beginning to pay closer attention to Bertha by mid-week.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Bertha Born

Off the coast of Africa. Headed for nowhere. Hurricane-starved Florida local news makes it lead story despite distance away and no threat to US. It does set a record as the earliest tropical storm to form that far East in the Atlantic. Typically Africa spawns storms starting in August. Having one this early in the season could be a bad sign!

The last Bertha was in 1996 and hit North Carolina.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

All quiet on the Western (Coast of Florida) Front

More moisture is building in the Gulf and we've finally had some substantial rain over past 10 days. Lawn is happy.

Meanwhile the state's insurance of last resort that many of us a counting on is increasing it's war chest: Florida's Citizens Secures $1.75 Billion for its High Risk Account


Digg!

Monday, June 09, 2008

Friday, June 06, 2008

Gift for me?

Now that Hurricane Season has officially begun, if you're thinking about purchasing a random gift for me, consider my Hurricane Registry (I'd even find a re-gifting of these items acceptable):


Cooking

Sterno
Portable camp stove or grill
Stove fuel or charcoal, lighter fluid
Aluminum foil
Oven mitts

Non-Perishable Foods*

Canned meats, fruits, vegetables
Bread in moisture-proof packaging
Cookies, candy, dried fruit
Canned soups & milk
Powdered or single serve drinks
Cereal bars
Condiments
Peanut butter & jelly
Instant coffee & tea

Equipment & Other Items

Manual can opener*
Disposable plates, cups & eating utensils
Napkins & paper towels
Flashlight* (one per person)
Portable battery powered lanterns
Glass enclosed candles (only for use after the storm)
Battery powered radio or TV
Battery operated alarm clock
Extra batteries, including hearing aids
Ice chest & ice
First aid kit, including aspirin, antibiotic cream & antacids
Mosquito repellent
Sun screen (SPF 45 recommended)
Waterproof matches/butane lighter
Money*
Bleach or water purification tablets
Maps of the area with landmarks

Babies

Disposable diapers & moist towelettes*
Formula, food & medication*

Documents

Photo copies of prescriptions*
Photo identification*
Proof of residence (utility bills)*
Medical history*
Waterproof container for document storage
Back up discs of your home computer files
Camera & film

Other Necessities

Tools: hammer, wrenches, screw drivers, nails, saw
Trash bags (lots of them)
Cleaning supplies
Plastic drop cloth
Mosquito netting
ABC rated fire extinguisher
Duct tape or strong masking tape for emergency repairs (not to tape windows)
Outdoor extension cords
Spray paint
Rope

Personal Supplies

Prescriptions* (1 month supply)
Toilet paper
Soap, shampoo & detergent
Toiletries & feminine hygiene products*
Changes of clothing*
Extra glasses or contacts
Bedding: pillows, sleeping bag*
Rain ponchos & work gloves
Entertainment: books, magazines, card games, etc.*

Pets

Dry & canned food
Water (half gallon per day)
Litter box supplies

Water
One gallon of water per person per day (half for drinking, half for bathing) Store water in clean, plastic containers such as soft drink bottles or milk jugs.

Have TWO WEEKS supply of each item for each person in your home.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Do the 1000+ Tornadoes this spring forecast an active Hurricane Season?

With Hurricane season starting up this Saturday, its time to blow the dust off this blog and wind up the keystrokes for another season of "As the Wind Blows"

I sit here tonight watching the local weather on our Fox affiliate , they were saying there have been more than 1100 tornadoes so far this year ("unofficially") and that there may be a tie between an active Tornado season and an active Hurricane season.

Just what you want to hear before bed.

Apparently that old girl, La Nina, creates an active jet stream that can create both types of storms.

The prediction for this season is more active than normal but comparable to last year's with 6 to 9 named storms. Check back from time to time for updates from Florida.