Saturday, November 30, 2013

It's over!

Ending today, this was the sixth LEAST active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950 with 13 storms only 2 hurricanes. 

Per the National Hurricane Center, they flew only 435 hours of recon flights, the fewest number since at least 1966. 

A couple of fun facts from the WeatherUnderground's Dr. Jeff Masters:

• Two hurricanes formed in 2013. This is the fewest hurricanes since 1982, when two hurricanes also formed.

• No major hurricanes formed in 2013. The last year with no major hurricane formations was 1994.

Read the rest of his fabulous postmortem  at: http://t.co/5TjFpwIHe2

Sunday, October 06, 2013

Karen's Disorganized & Weakening! Looks like a rain event.

We've been monitoring Hurricane, rather, Tropical Storm, I mean Tropical Depression.....Karen.

She's dying.

It hasn't rained for a week here in Tampa Bay and we'd take some of her rain but it's headed north/northeast of us.   We may get a shower or two tomorrow as the remnants pass by.


Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Season's First Hurricane Misses Record by Hours


Early this morning, Hurricane Humberto formed far out in the Atlantic Ocean.  All weather watchers in Florida were keeping track of whether we'd set a new record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane.  The record holder, Gustav, formed on September 11th, 2002.  Humberto formed about 3 hours earlier in the morning.



Prior to Gustav, Diana formed on September 10, 1984.   The average date for the season's first hurricane is August 10th, based on 1966-2009 averages.  And for the first MAJOR hurricane (Cat 3 or higher), it's September 4th.    Another data point average is that the third hurricane of the season typically develops by September 9th.



Before we get too excited, we need to point to the Weather Channel's data that shows the lack of hurricanes through August does not necessarily mean we're in the clear or will see less storms than predicted.


And as they point out, an  "average" Atlantic hurricane season (1981-2010) would still deliver the following after September 7th and include:
  • 7 more named storms
  • 4 hurricanes
  • 2 major hurricanes
Put another way, 61% of all Atlantic named storms form from September through the end of the season.

And as a disclaimer, the National Hurricane Center chimes in from their Facebook page:

As a number of folks know, we are approaching a record for the latest formation of the season's first hurricane, 
at least in the satellite era. Since 1967, the latest formation of the season's first hurricane was 8 am ET September 11th (Gustav in 2002). As it happens, Humberto is approaching hurricane strength with 8 am on the 11th also just around the corner (to mix a space-time metaphor). So this might be a good time to remind folks that NHC always conducts a post-storm analysis of each tropical cyclone. We usually adjust the final positions and intensities a little bit in this analysis, and sometimes we make substantial adjustments, based on information that we might not have had in real time. 

The point being that regardless of when Humberto might become a hurricane in our advisories, the final final call on whether or not we actually set a record will not be determined until the post-storm analysis is complete, several weeks or perhaps even a couple months from now





Thursday, August 15, 2013

Erin forms in Atlantic but rain will come from the Gulf

This weekend's weather in the Tampa Bay region will be impacted by the Invest near the Yucatan. 
The potential tropical storm or depression will be a rain maker, even with no further development.  

Erin is many days away from any potential US impact and its path can't be fully determined just yet.  

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

9 Years Ago Today - Charlie Comes to Florida

Nice recap from Tampa Bay's Bay News 9 on the story of Hurricane Charley, the 6th costliest hurricane in US History with over $15 billion in damages.



I wasn't blogging then (started in 2005), but Charlie was part of the inspiration for me to start updating my friends and family via emails and eventually to start this blog!


Sunday, August 11, 2013

Named Storm Predictions Reduced - Slightly

As we head into the typically busiest time of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, storm count predictions have been SLIGHTLY reduced by the leading experts and NOAA.   Here's the recap from the Orlando Sun Sentinel.




Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Tropical Storm Dorian has formed.....

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is possible today...followed by
gradual weakening on Thursday as dorian moves over cooler water.

 



Friday, July 12, 2013

Chantal to only throw rain at Florida

After a July 4th week of rain, more to come this weekend.  Thanks Chantal, but we're glad to see you go....

The story from the Tampa Bay Times July 12th. 


Monday, July 08, 2013

Tornado just a few miles from us (picture)

Normal Florida summertime afternoon thunder showers create waterspout/tornado in Northern Pinellas County (Clearwater, Dunedin, Oldsmar, Safety Harbor).  Heavy rain and thunder too.  Tornado warning in effect until 715pm.  


Not related to Chantal which may be visiting us this weekend.