Thursday, August 17, 2017

Hurricane Andrew Named 25 Years Ago Today

Twenty-five years ago today, meteorologists officially named the storm that was brewing off the coast of Africa. The weather system, just a tropical storm at the time, would later grow into Hurricane Andrew and slam into South Florida as a Category 5, becoming the most destructive hurricane ever at that time. 

Tampa Bay Times Feature:   Remembering Andrew on its 25th anniversary.

Harvey, Irma and Jose?

From the Patch.  Very professional story:

TAMPA, FL — Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were busy Wednesday morning monitoring four separate storm systems in the Atlantic Ocean. While Hurricane Gert is making the most waves, three areas of disturbed weather are showing stronger signs for the potential to develop into the Atlantic hurricane season’s next named storms.
Hurricane Gert was located about 330 miles northwest of Bermuda as of the center’s Wednesday morning update. The Category 1 storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 90 mph while moving northeast at 21 mph. Gert is following a projected path that will take her into the open Atlantic over the next few days before encounters with cooler waters are expected to cause her to downgrade back to tropical storm status.

The three disturbances under watch were all located in the southern Atlantic Ocean as of Wednesday morning. The first system is an area of low pressure that was located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles as of the hurricane center’s 8 a.m. Aug. 16 Tropical Weather Outlook report. The storm was moving westward at an estimated 15 mph. It’s expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea by Friday. “Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days,” the center warned Wednesday morning. The system has been given a 30 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. Chances rise to 40 percent over the next five days.
The second disturbance under watch was located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday morning. Forecasters expect the low pressure system to move west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the next few days. Gradual development is possible as the workweek continues, but forecasters say the storm may encounter less conducive conditions over the weekend. As of Wednesday, the system had been given a 30 percent chance of developing more over the next 48 hours. Those chances rise to 40 percent over the next five days.

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is also under watch. The center says conditions do appear conducive for the system’s gradual development as it moves westward at an estimated 15 mph over the next few days. That storm has been given no chance of forming more over the next 48 hours. The chances, however, rise to 40 percent over the next five days.
Should the systems develop enough to earn names, the next three up are Harvey, Irma and Jose.
While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impacts the disturbances may have on Florida or the eastern seaboard, the uptick in activity serves as a reminder that the peak of the season has arrived. This year’s peak, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say, could be a busy one. The agency adjusted its seasonal forecast upward last week.
Back in May, NOAA forecast a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season. Last week, that number rose to a 60 percent chance.

Here Are The Top 10 Items You Need In Your Hurricane Emergency Kit

Forecasters call the period between mid-August and mid-October the “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” according to NOAA.
The peak period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for roughly 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year. Average seasons produce about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are generally deemed major.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Emily Unexpectedly

When I went to bed last night, the "Invest" in the Gulf had a 20% chance of forming.   This morning I was awoken by Topical Storm Warnings on my phone.  This appears to be a "Low-End" Tropical Storm that will dump another 2 inches or so where we live and up to 4 inches south of Tampa Bay.

Some power outages including 1200 customers near (not so) Sun City.

There are some gusts and tornado watches/warnings for the Sarasota/Bradenton area to our south. Wind is strong on the Sunshine Skyway Bridge between St. Petersburg and that area over the mouth of Tampa Bay and traffic is stopped due to the gusts:

From the radar, it appears that south central Florida will get the brunt of this rain event.

Monday, July 17, 2017

Don Forms - History says it will stay south of Florida

That said, we are heading towards the peak of the season in August & September and will stay tuned!

Here's the path storms that form where Don has have taken in the past....

Saturday, March 18, 2017

National Hurricane Center rolls out new look for 'cone of uncertainty'

Changes for the upcoming Hurricane Season (which starts in just over 60 days):

Thursday, December 01, 2016

The Season & the Drought Are Over

While I had more to watch & post about this summer and even had some minor impact from this season's storms, but all-in-all, it was much to do about nothing on the West coast of Florida.  Yes, we had a lot of rainfall that impacted some low lying areas around Tampa Bay.  But, these areas tend to flood on any heavy rain.   I'm sorry for those impacted by that, but they are used to it and I don't believe there was much serious damage to many homes or property

Yes, the headline is that after 10 years (Wilma in 2005), we finally had a hurricane make landfall in the state of Florida (Hermine)

We sat through a full day of rain from Hermine on September 2nd in Darlington South Carolina after it passed by the Tampa Bay area and made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida and continued Northeast.  At home we received well over 5 inches of rain that day.

Matthew didn't throw anything but some lighter rain at us over here, which was the last significant rain we received the week of October 3rd.   While no wildfires (like in the Carolinas and Tennessee), we haven't seen rain in nearly 2 months here in Tampa Bay.

Here's one recap of the 2016 season: