Sunday, August 31, 2008

Gustav outer band glancing Tampa Bay

Just catching the edge of this band. Light rain falling.

Have had wind all day including some gusts that got my trees' attention (and mine!)

We're 270 miles from the center of the eye as of 2pm today yet we're feeling the effect of Gustav's wind, rain, and clouds!

5:27pm update: Worst of the band is in southern end of the Tampa Bay area affecting Sarasota and Bradenton primarily. Looks like heaviest weather is offshore.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Gustav - New Orleans Contraflow Traffic Web Cams & Social Media Links

Will be interesting watching these New Orleans webcams starting Sunday>

Gustav's predicted impact on Gulf of Mexico oil production.

New Orleans Radio

Gustav Updated Tracking Map

Get a ride out of Gustav's way on craigslist??!!

New Orleans Mayor says Gustav is "Storm of the Century". Orders Evacuation. Excellent recap of current status from the New York Times

Gustav Social Networking (Ning) Aggregation Site

Gustav on Twitter

Gustav will be "Social Media's" Coming Out Party


Gustav - A big storm with a big reach - Already!

Extending 175 miles from the center, feeder Bands already soaking us. Clearwater Beach streets were full of water at 2pm today with more to come.... Water has subsided, as it normally does after the drenching.

Should be a gray and wet holiday weekend here on the west coast of the Sunshine State.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Gustav & Hanna Update

Hanna is an interesting storm in that she's not sure where she wants to go yet, but Florida is in the target for now. Watching steering currents to see where she goes next week.

Seems like Gustav is also very susceptible to changing weather patterns that will affect direction and strength but no doubt will impact the southern Gulf Coast of the U.S. early next week.

For me, I still have all my yard "stuff" (chairs, planters, etc) still in the garage from the initial threat of Fay.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Profile of the last Hurricane Gustav (2002)

From Wikipedia: Hurricane Gustav was a Category 2 hurricane that paralleled the East Coast of the United States in September during the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the seventh named storm and first hurricane of the season. Initially a subtropical depression north of the Bahamas, Gustav passed slightly to the east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a tropical storm before moving northeastward and making two landfalls in Atlantic Canada as a Category 1 hurricane. The storm was responsible for one death and $100,000 in damage, mostly in North Carolina. The interaction between Gustav and a non-tropical system produced strong winds that caused an additional $240,000 (2002 USD) in damage in New England, but this damage was not directly attributed to the hurricane.

Gustav spent the early part of its life as a subtropical storm, and was the first such storm to be named from the current lists by the National Hurricane Center. Previously, subtropical storms were not given names. The cyclone was also the latest-forming first hurricane of the season since 1941.

Category 3 with 120+ mph winds?

Hurricane Gustav - This could shape up as a bad one!

Oil prices sure to spike. Residents of Fay-soaked Gulf Coast have to be very anxious and just the thought of landfall near New Orleans is frightful. National media will really jump all over this post DNC in Denver.

The older I get the more I hate reading: "There is a possibility that Gustav could become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane sometime Friday or Saturday and be a Category 3 hurricane when it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. All interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast need to watch the progress of this storm for early next week, especially the central and western Gulf Coast areas."

Links that got my attention:
Washington Post - Gustav could become a giant

Monday, August 25, 2008

TS Gustav Born Today; Hurricane Tomorrow?

Chances are the storm will strengthen overnight and then work its way into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and could strengthen further to become a major hurricane. Models show generally westward movement for the time being but already Tampa Bay TV is suggesting close monitoring later in the week as Gustav's ultimate general landfall destination is uncertain at this point.

Tropical Depression Forms - Headed To Florida - Again!?

Just as we're finally drying out and the sunshine has returned to its namesake state, another storm is forming with a west/northwest bias. Would become Gustav if/when it strengthens to Tropical Storm/Hurricane status.

Tis the season....

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Fay historic rainmaker but....

....keep your eye on the Atlantic. 3 tropical waves active heading into the peak of the season!

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Fay Affects Entire State (Except Us)

About the only counties in the state not impacted with warnings or watches is the mid-west coast anchored by the Tampa Bay area!

Fay forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon

Northeastern Florida and then headed west north west into South Georgia.

Meanwhile, first squall from Fay hit Tampa Bay a few minutes ago, but nothing to be concerned about.

Warnings Canceled in Tampa Bay

TS Fay makes landfall south of Naples headed N/NE. Warnings canceled in the Tampa Bay area and as predicted last night, today should be just a typical Summertime day with some rain, thundershowers, and a few gusts of wind. Schools and Government offices closed, nearly 100 arriving and departing flights out of Tampa International Airport canceled, but precautionary measures are necessary when a storm like this is approaching and can take one of many paths.

Meanwhile, there is another tropical wave out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near latitude 35 west that could get organized and we'll start watching.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Fay No Hurricane - West of Tampa, No Problem!

Our ABC television affiliate predicts perhaps NO rain or wind west of Tampa (that's where we are) meaning St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Pinellas County won't get the energy from Fay which will move east across the state and perhaps back into the Atlantic Ocean up near Jacksonville Could go regroup and then move west across the state or die out.

Pinellas County will wait until tomorrow morning's 5am advisory before lifting some of mandatory evacuations scheduled to go into effect at 6am. Hillsborough County (Tampa) to do something similar.

South of Tampa Bay will get the brunt of the storm down near Naples, so I'm going to bed and hope things don't change over night.

8pm Tropical Storm Fay Advisory - Northbound Now!

Indications are landfall near Naples and then up the interior of the state throwing most of the rain and weather towards the East Coast sparing us in Tampa Bay. However, the path could change just as Charlie did in 2004. All important 11pm update and then we'll see where Fay is situated in the morning.

My employer has told us not to report Tuesday. Schools are cancelled and this is could end up being a minimal event with just some wind gusts and a healthy dose of rain...but....

Took some precautionary measures today and brought in the potential airborne objects, bought some ice and filled up the car. Will be glad if it's all for naught. In the meantime discovered the best Hurricane data dashboard thus far with our local Fox affiliate . Multiple satellite and radar views, forecast tracks, spaghetti models, live video from their weather center, webcams and even nonsensical scrolling chat. Who are these people??!

Spaghetti Still Leaning East of Tampa Bay!

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from

Encouraging for those of us in Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm Fay: Spaghetti models from

Today will tell a lot

We have most of our hurricane supplies set. Need some ice, fill up the car, get some cash and later today make final preparations including securing all outside items that could become airborne in a storm.

The track is pushing farther east but the storm looks like it may be pretty wide. The stronger side of the storm is on the east so that's a better track than brushing the west coast and having all that energy right on us. The center of the "cone" predicts landfall north of Fort Meyers and south of Port Charlotte, not too far from where 2004 storms hit, and then tracking north east of Tampa Bay.

Today is the first day of school for many. Tuesday will probably be a "hurricane day" - our version of a "snow day" for you Northerners....

Stay tuned.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Saturday, August 16, 2008

State of Emergency Declared in Florida

Governor Crist issues a wake up call, but at 3pm today, my Lowe's customers are still asleep!

We are still in the center of the cone with Tuesday the most likely day of concern here in the Tampa Bay area and most of the west coast of Florida.
Keep going west Fay!!


Fay to Choose West Side of Florida?!

As of 5am this morning, the cone of uncertainty is leaning West. Fay's travels this weekend over Cuba and warmer waters will have impact on direction and intensity.

May have to get the wood for my windows out and ready on Sunday just in case.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Fay - d Away!

Something to distract us this weekend.

By Monday she should have picked a side of Florida and perhaps graduated to a Hurricane.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Potential Hurricane this Weekend??!

Accuweather continues to closely monitor two areas of showers and thunderstorms. Both areas could become organized tropical systems within the next couple of days.

The first feature is about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 15.5 north, 55 west and should continue to move west northwest during the next few days. If the system continues to organize it should become a depression sometime on Wednesday or Thursday♦.

Long range computer information takes the system into the southern Bahamas on Saturday and Sunday. Computer forecasts suggest this system should become a storm and could become a hurricane this weekend.

The limiting factors on strengthening will be lingering dry air to the north and some shear to the north and west of the system. If the system moves slow the shear will not be a factor. The Atlantic ridge in place over the western Atlantic is forecast to build stronger to the west and over Florida. If this happens then the system will turn more westerly into Cuba or the Straits of Florida early next week. But the long range ideas on this system are highly uncertain and are highly dependent on the orientation and strength of the Atlantic ridge.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Accuweather - Two "Features" could become tropical systems this week

Atlantic Becoming More Active (August 11th 2008 at 9:30pm)

We are keeping a close eye on two features in the southern North Atlantic that might become organized tropical systems within the next few days. One feature is located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles along 47 west with a broad area of low pressure centered near 13 north. This low pressure area and the clouds, showers and thunderstorms attempting to wrap around it have been moving west-northwest at about 10-15kts. Computer simulations suggest this feature will attempt to organize over the next few days and could become an organized tropical feature by the time it nears the Leeward islands on Thursday. Surface temperatures are near 80 degrees Fahrenheit and upper-level winds are favorable. The only limiting factor is drier air to the north and northwest. If this dry air gets drawn into the low pressure area this could prevent thunderstorms from wrapping around the system.

The second feature we are watching is located along 30 west with a surface low near 11 north. This is roughly 450 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Visible satellite images during Monday afternoon were showing a swirling cloud mass including some banding clouds. Banding clouds suggests convective showers and thunderstorms are arcing around a common center, a sign the system is trying to organize in the lower and upper levels. If this banding process continues, the system could become a tropical depression within the next day or two. The system is moving west northwest at about 10-15kts over relatively warm water. It will pass over an area of cooler water over the next 24 hours then should be in favorable warm water. The system is riding on the northern fringes of stronger wind shear which could have some affect on its development. But the shear should relax as it moves farther east. If this system can outrun the shear and move into warmer water, then it could become a depression within the next day or two.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

Saturday, August 09, 2008

More storms early this season than all but 4 years of the last 150


Last week experts raised their predictions for this year's Atlantic hurricane activity.

Meanwhile, Accuweather says keep an eye on a tropical wave coming off Africa coast Sunday for potential development next week.

Sunday, August 03, 2008

Tropical Storm Edouard forms in Gulf of Mexico

I don't think the name "Edouard" is in new baby circulation anymore. But if you must see who the famous Edouards are, look here .


1 in the Gulf - 2 in the Atlantic?

August starts the peak of the season! To start the month, activity has churned up in the Gulf over the weekend and there are some tropical waves of interest out in the Atlantic.