Saturday, June 27, 2009

First Spaghetti Model of the Season

Disturbance near Yucatan Peninsula "Invest 93" could throw a lot of rain at Florida or Mexico ......and/or become the first named storm of the year - "Ana"

Something to watch this coming week heading into the 4th of July holiday.

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Day 2 Gift - A Lowered Forecast!

Philip Klotzback & William Gray have lowered their 2009 storm forecast (pdf).

Tracking their December 2008 to April 2009 to June 2009 reports:

  • Named Storms 14-12-11
  • Hurricanes 7-6-5
  • Major Hurricanes 3-2-2

The possibilties of a Category 3,4, or 5 storm hitting the US coastline now 48% (compared to 52% for the last century)

The US East Coast's probability is 28% (31% for last century)

The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville also 28% (30% for last century)

There is a 39% probability of at least one major storm tracking into the Caribbean compared to 42% for the last century.

My non-scientific interpretation of this reduction in their latest report is due to evolving weather conditions that will provide more upper level wind shear coupled with stronger Atlantic trade winds in April & May, both of which normally decrease the levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic ocean. They added that sea surface temperatures are lower in the tropical Atlantic that also is less conducive to storm activity.

In a long period of more active storm seasons, this is favorable data for this year!

Monday, June 01, 2009

It's Opening Day!

On the first day of the 2009 Hurricane Season and the eve of their June 2nd Seasonal Update, here is Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach's presentation from the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference delivered May 14th in Ft. Lauderdale. While there are quite a few technical slides and no audio, there are some pretty straight-forward and obvious slides, such as this one:

My take away from this presentation, which is based on historical data and their April predictions, is that we are looking at an average to slightly above average Hurricane season, based on the lower image. 54% probability of at least one major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% average for the last century). Florida is at a 32% probability (31% for the last century).

Tomorrow we get their updated Seasonal Forecast. Find out more at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project website.