Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Day 2 Gift - A Lowered Forecast!

Philip Klotzback & William Gray have lowered their 2009 storm forecast (pdf).

Tracking their December 2008 to April 2009 to June 2009 reports:

  • Named Storms 14-12-11
  • Hurricanes 7-6-5
  • Major Hurricanes 3-2-2

The possibilties of a Category 3,4, or 5 storm hitting the US coastline now 48% (compared to 52% for the last century)

The US East Coast's probability is 28% (31% for last century)

The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville also 28% (30% for last century)

There is a 39% probability of at least one major storm tracking into the Caribbean compared to 42% for the last century.

My non-scientific interpretation of this reduction in their latest report is due to evolving weather conditions that will provide more upper level wind shear coupled with stronger Atlantic trade winds in April & May, both of which normally decrease the levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic ocean. They added that sea surface temperatures are lower in the tropical Atlantic that also is less conducive to storm activity.

In a long period of more active storm seasons, this is favorable data for this year!

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