Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Looking busy!

Tropical Waves, points of interest, wind shear all adding up to the 2009 season beginning to get our attention here in Florida.

Nothing definitive yet and the reports I'm reading have a low probability of any of these forming into a large enough storm to be named (for now), but the water's warm and the tropical waves are forming.

Hurray for wind shear!

UPDATED: System is headed north and should provide rain to New England. We're clear for now.

Friday, July 17, 2009

First Wave to Watch of the Season

Limited chance of this becoming anything to worry about over next 48 hours....


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN



Sunday, July 12, 2009

Five Things About Hurricanes - from NASA


While this is interesting, my take away is the research goals in 2010 between NASA, their Jet Propulsion Laboratory & the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Five Things About Hurricanes
07.01.09

JPL scientist Bjorn Lambrigtsen goes on hurricane watch every June. He is part of a large effort to track hurricanes and understand what powers them.

Lambrigtsen specializes in the field of microwave instruments, which fly aboard research planes and spacecraft, penetrating through thick clouds to see the heart of a hurricane. While scientists are adept at predicting where these powerful storms will hit land, there are crucial aspects they still need to wrench from these potentially killer storms.

Here are thoughts and factoids from Lambrigtsen in the field of hurricane research.

1. Pinpointing the moment of birth
Most Atlantic hurricanes start as a collection of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa. These storm clusters move across the Atlantic, ending up in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico or Central America. While only one in 10 of these clusters evolve into hurricanes, scientists do not yet know what triggers this powerful transformation. Pinpointing a hurricane's origin will be a major goal of a joint field campaign in 2010 between NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

2. Predicting intensity
Another focus of next year's research campaign will be learning how to better predict a storm's intensity. It is difficult for emergency personnel and the public to gauge storm preparations when they don't know if the storm will be mild or one with tremendous force. NASA's uncrewed Global Hawk will be added to the 2010 research armada. This drone airplane, which can fly for 30 straight hours, will provide an unprecedented long-duration view of hurricanes in action, giving a window into what fuels storm intensity.

3. Deadly force raining down
Think about a hurricane. You imagine high, gusting winds and pounding waves. However, one of the deadliest hurricanes in recent history was one that parked itself over Central America in October 1998 and dumped torrential rain. Even with diminished winds, rain from Hurricane Mitch reached a rate of more than 4 inches per hour. This caused catastrophic floods and landslides throughout the region.

4. Replenishing "spring"
Even though hurricanes can wreak havoc, they also carry out the important task of replenishing the freshwater supply along the Florida and southeastern U.S. coast and Gulf of Mexico. The freshwater deposited is good for the fish and the ecological environment.

5. One size doesn't fit all
Hurricanes come in a huge a variety of sizes. Massive ones can cover the entire Gulf of Mexico (about 1,000 miles across), while others are just as deadly at only 100 miles across. This is a mystery scientists are still trying to unravel.

NASA and NOAA conduct joint field campaigns to study hurricanes. The agencies use research planes to fly through and above hurricanes, and scientists collect data from NASA spacecraft that fly overhead. NOAA, along with its National Hurricane Center, is the U.S. government agency tasked with hurricane forecasting.

For more information on how NASA and JPL study hurricanes, go to www.nasa.gov/hurricane and http://tropicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

No Storm - Just Rain. Month 1 done without incident....but it's early!


Invest 93L never developed into anything more than a whole lotta rain crossing the Florida Peninsula yesterday and today.

This is the morning commute today in downtown Tampa.



Saturday, June 27, 2009

First Spaghetti Model of the Season



Disturbance near Yucatan Peninsula "Invest 93" could throw a lot of rain at Florida or Mexico ......and/or become the first named storm of the year - "Ana"

Something to watch this coming week heading into the 4th of July holiday.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Day 2 Gift - A Lowered Forecast!


Philip Klotzback & William Gray have lowered their 2009 storm forecast (pdf).

Tracking their December 2008 to April 2009 to June 2009 reports:


  • Named Storms 14-12-11
  • Hurricanes 7-6-5
  • Major Hurricanes 3-2-2

The possibilties of a Category 3,4, or 5 storm hitting the US coastline now 48% (compared to 52% for the last century)

The US East Coast's probability is 28% (31% for last century)

The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville also 28% (30% for last century)

There is a 39% probability of at least one major storm tracking into the Caribbean compared to 42% for the last century.

My non-scientific interpretation of this reduction in their latest report is due to evolving weather conditions that will provide more upper level wind shear coupled with stronger Atlantic trade winds in April & May, both of which normally decrease the levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic ocean. They added that sea surface temperatures are lower in the tropical Atlantic that also is less conducive to storm activity.

In a long period of more active storm seasons, this is favorable data for this year!




Monday, June 01, 2009

It's Opening Day!

On the first day of the 2009 Hurricane Season and the eve of their June 2nd Seasonal Update, here is Dr. William Gray and Phil Klotzbach's presentation from the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference delivered May 14th in Ft. Lauderdale. While there are quite a few technical slides and no audio, there are some pretty straight-forward and obvious slides, such as this one:


My take away from this presentation, which is based on historical data and their April predictions, is that we are looking at an average to slightly above average Hurricane season, based on the lower image. 54% probability of at least one major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricane landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline (compared to 52% average for the last century). Florida is at a 32% probability (31% for the last century).

Tomorrow we get their updated Seasonal Forecast. Find out more at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project website.