Tropical Depression 19 Forms

This one should head west but one model has it coming up into the Gulf and perhaps turning east.   We'll want to keep an eye on this one as we head into the final 40 days of the 2010 Hurricane Season.

When & if it becomes a named storm it will be Richard.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023214.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Paula grew up fast and is now deciding where to go..

Hurricane Paula, the 16th named storm and 9th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970 according to meteorologist Jeff Masters from the Weather Underground.


<sup>However, it may turn out that Paula will be recognized as intensifying from first advisory to a hurricane which would be eighteen hours, tying 2007's Hurricane Humberto, the most recent record holder. 


There have been six storms that accomplished this  feat in 24 hours.


Most models show the storm heading towards Cuba after a sideswipe of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.  South Florida remains on alert, especially the Keys.   


Wikipedia has an entry saying this is only the 5th time we've had a storm start with the letter P.   Read more about that here.</sup>

October is the 3rd Most Active Month of Hurricane Season

While September is traditionally the busiest month, and it was this year, October is also historically active.  Especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.  The Weather Channel data shows October averages show 2 storms per year:

And here's where they have originated in the first 10 days of the month:

We're looking forward to getting past October.  The season ends in 60 days, so we're only 2/3 of the way through.

Tropical Depression 16 Forms

Headed North/Northeast towards east coast of Florida

Details here

15 turned into Matthew & went to Central America, but.....

The next one being watched could come up through Cuba towards Florida. 

Some Florida TV station weather meteorologists are suggesting keeping an eye out on a disturbance that could become a Tropical Depression and a tropical storm late next week. 

Models suggest a north or north east path up towards the peninsula.

Tropical Depression 15 could be the one for Florida to watch...

Watching local ABC affiliate last night, perennial correct Tampa Bay forecaster, Denis Phillips, says to keep an eye on this area of the Caribbean this week for possible Tropical Depression formation.  Now that Lisa has formed in the Atlantic, right now it would be TD 15.  He said that historically 95% of all Tropical storms formed in this area, travel north.

Late September and October is peak for Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean storm formation that could affect Florida.  

Stay tuned.

Earl from International Space Station (photo)

Where are those tropical storms?

Not that I'm complaining.


Andy Johnson, meteorologist at the Fox TV affiliate in Tampa points out that there have only been 15 named storms in the entire Northern Hemisphere so far this year and it's the lowest number of tropical cyclones to date since reliable records began in 1948. 


Dry air in the Atlantic seems to be the culprit coupled with the record heat wave in Russia.  Good news for now, but we are only 1/3 of the way through the season and coming into the peak of the season.  Andy says that long range models show things may pick up at the end of August

It's Hot Everywhere...including the Tropics

Image from Accuweather

Bonnie clouding up Tampa Bay. Rain just south at lunchtime

Cloudy outside my window.  A little breeze.  Expecting a rainy night here.  Praying for favorable impact to the oil spill area along the Gulf Coast as Bonnie strengthens & heads Northwest through the Gulf.