Bonnie clouding up Tampa Bay. Rain just south at lunchtime

Cloudy outside my window.  A little breeze.  Expecting a rainy night here.  Praying for favorable impact to the oil spill area along the Gulf Coast as Bonnie strengthens & heads Northwest through the Gulf.

Here comes Bonnie...

Looks like Tropical Depression #3 will evolve into a Tropical Storm later today and skirt south of Tampa Bay but unfortunately headed toward the Oil Spill in the Gulf

Stuck in the middle!

Tampa Bay sits in spaghetti model field as of July 21st...time to start paying attention....

The National Hurricane Center projects that "Invest 97L" has a 60-percent chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.  Tampa Bay weather forecasters are saying this is probably mostly a rainmaker on Friday for us. 

First Tropical Depression of 2010 Hurricane Season

Should be Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday

Updated Long-Range Forecast from Dr. William Gray

Drs. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach have updated their 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and unfortunately increased their numbers to be more consistent with the recently released NOAA forecast.

Their chart (above) shows an approximate 20% increase in key metrics from their April forecast.  Gray and Klotzbach release regular forecasts from the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science

NOAA Hurricane Forecast

NOAA is predicting, with 70 percent certainty, that there will be 14-23 named storms; eight to 14 of those will become hurricanes and three to seven will be major or Category 3-plus storms.

Wow!!!

10 Days to go - Do we even remember what a hurricane is like?

With 10 days to go until the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, here's an article from Friday's St. Petersburg Times, that is spot on to the psyche of people I talk to locally.

On another note, the amount of press coverage on the potential mixing of weather & oil could be overwhelming for the next couple of months.  Let's just hope the season is quiet until (and if) the mess can be contained.

Meanwhile, pre-season activity has already started off the Carolina coast. Here are the details

How Hurricanes Work

As the countdown to the start of the 2010 Hurricane Season is now less than 1 month, here's a quick webpage that shows How Hurricanes Work from the great website, "How Stuff Works"

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray's updated forecast calls for the high end of their initial 2010 forecast issued in December, 2009:

Named Storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Intense Hurricanes: 4  (Category 3-4-5)

They predict that the season will be significantly more active than the average from 1950-2000

Chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall:

Entire US Coastline:  69%  (average for last century is 52%)
U.S. East Coast including Florida Peninsula:  45% (average for last century is 31%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville:  44% (average for last century is 30%)

Hurricane Season officially starts June 1st, less than 60 days from now.  

Bad Luck-Victim of 5 different natural disasters----Indicted!

Desima James, 30, of Atlanta, Georgia, has been indicted by a federal grand jury on felony charges for fraudulently obtaining FEMA assistance funds intended for the victims of several different federally declared disasters. James was arraigned today before United States Magistrate Judge Alan Baverman, who set a bond hearing for Wednesday, March 31, 2010.

United States Attorney Sally Quillian Yates said of the case, "In just a few months, this defendant claimed to be a victim of five different natural disasters in five different states. He is accused of filing over 30 fraudulent claims with FEMA, using different names, fake social security numbers, and various addresses to enable him to escape detection and steal over $30,000 in disaster relief that was intended for real victims. He has now been caught and will be called to answer for this extensive fraud."

"This investigation is an excellent example of a partnership between federal law enforcement agencies to bring down a nationwide fraud scheme. The Postal Inspection Service aggressively pursues all crimes using the U.S. Mail to further a fraudulent scheme, but is especially vigilant with regards to any scheme that attempts to profit from natural disasters such as these destructive hurricanes," said Martin D. Phanco, Inspector in Charge of the Atlanta Division, U.S. Postal Inspection Service.

According to United States Attorney Yates, the charges and other information presented in court: From September through December 2005, James allegedly filed over 30 fraudulent claims for disaster relief with FEMA, claiming to have been a victim of Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana, Hurricane Rita in Louisiana and Texas, Hurricane Wilma in Florida, severe storms and flooding in New Hampshire, and a tornado and severe storms in Indiana

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