Changes to the "Cone of Uncertainty"

From the Governor's Hurricane Conference in Fort. Lauderdale today, it was announced that due to better forecasting capabilities, the storm path cone, known as the "cone of uncertainty" is going to shrink. The cone is used to depict the projected area where the eye of a storm has a two-thirds chance of passing, based on five years of error analysis.

Because predictions are getting better, the circles that make up the cone can shrink, said the National Hurricane Center's Robbie Berg

The straight black line that usually runs through the cone, connecting the dots where the storm is projected to travel, will also disappear. Berg said the center is removing the line because people often mistake it as a landfall prediction.

Here in Florida we are constantly reminded not to focus on the black line but rather watch the width and direction of the cone.

In addition, the process for predicting storm surge will be modified with more emphasis on the size of the storm, not just the category.

Read more here.

More details on Florida's Insurance Rates going up

While Governor Crist hasn't YET signed it, details of the insurance regulation bill are available. Here are the highlights:

• Citizens Property Insurance can aise rates a maximum of 10 percent annually until its rates are actuarially sound.
• Increases rates 1 percent each year to recover the cost of extra payments to the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund, required for rapid reserve build-up.
• Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund
• Reduces coverage sold by $2 billion over the next six years.
• Implements a rapid reserve build-up program over the next five years. Insurers will pay additional premiums each year.
• Allows small insurers to purchase additional coverage from the CAT Fund.
• Allows private insurers to pass on up to 10 percent of their reinsurance costs to policyholders through expedited rate filings.
• Prohibits insurers from raising rates and then filing the required paperwork with state regulators until Dec. 31, 2010.

Here's the full story from the Miami Herald.

I don't believe this news has fully reached the over 1 million Citizen's Insurance customers in the state as well as everyone else here that will face higher rates partly due to the hurricane activity in 2004-5 and to protect the state's emergency Hurricane Catastrophe Fund in the future.

Wait till Charlie signs the legislation and watch for the fireworks! This won't be good.

Higher Property Insurance Rates for Florida coming just in time for Hurricane Season

In an effort to shore up the state's Hurricane disaster fund, homeowners throughout the state may be facing higher property-insurance bills. The measure, which easily passed both State chambers, would increase rates for customers of the state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp. by 10 percent a year. Also, customers of private insurance companies likely will see rate hikes, though the amounts could vary.

The bill is sitting on Governor Charlie Crist's desk as the week begins.

Hurricane Season starts in less than 30 days.

Florida's Emergency Management Director headed for FEMA chief confirmation

Craig Fugate, President Obama’s nominee to head FEMA, sailed through his confirmation hearing Wednesday before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and made strong assurances on Hurricane Katrina recovery and the future of the disaster response agency.

I'd say he's qualified:

As Florida’s emergency management chief since 2001, Fugate has responded to eight major hurricanes. A certified firefighter and paramedic, he also spent 10 years as a local emergency manager in Alachua County, Florida. He has managed the response to 11 federal disasters, 23 state emergencies and has overseen more than $4.5 billion in federal disaster assistance.

Good News?

Headlines this week in Florida were that due to the loosening of the credit markets, the State would have the ability to bond an additional $5 billion, if needed, giving us $8 billion for the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

The fund was established after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, to back up insurers in the event of a particularly devastating hurricane, or a quick succession of smaller ones. It now has an exposure of more than $28 billion with less than $8 billion on hand to pay claims.

Here's the round up of news coverage (although most of it says the same thing)

Ironically, Governor Charlie Crist found out about this via telephone as his trip to the state capital in Tallahassee was delayed due to Tornado warnings near his home in St. Petersburg, FL.

2009 Hurricane Forecast Lowered

Colorado State University forecasters Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray cite cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weak El Nino developing in the Pacific Ocean.

	December forecast	April update	Normal (based on 1950-2000 data)
Named storms	14	12	10
Hurricanes	7	6	6
Hurricane days	30	25	24
Intense hurricanes	2	3	2
Intense hurricane days	7	5	5
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)	125	100	96

Read the details in here

A Second Disaster hits Homestead

17 years after Hurricane Andrew, another disaster has hit Homestead, Florida. Over 2200 homes in foreclosure since October due to overbuilding & speculators - Story

Global and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity [still] lowest in 30-years...but...

Florida State University PHD Student, Ryan Maue, shows activity is down but La Nina threatens Atlantic Season (again) in 2009

National Hurricane Center to Provide Video Streaming

Press Release

Under the agreement, AEN's pioneering Internet- and satellite-based service will distribute live-video storm updates by National Hurricane Center forecasters during U.S. landfalling hurricanes and when other events warrant.

These crucial video briefings by the nation's leading experts will be available to anyone with an Internet connection -- without charge, in real time and in their entirety via media websites that subscribe to the AEN network.

Digital Transition To Darken Most Portable TVs

With no electricity (say in the case of a hurricane), no cable TV, no Internet and the digital converter boxes for old analog TVs won't work. Battery powered digital TVs are in short supply and appear not to work very well.

Threw away my old 6 inch battery powered analog TV this weekend.

Looks like an opportunity for local radio!