Early Forecast Says Below-Average Hurricane Season

The annual National Hurricane Conference is going on this week in Orlando. 

El Nino may weaken by the peak of 2016 Hurricane Season

The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project's December publication suggests this could be so, albeit too early to tell.

Some interesting factoids from their post:

• The last major hurricane to hit Florida was Wilma in 2005.  Since then none of the 27 major hurricanes that have formed have made US landfall.  
• This ten-year period is the longest the US has gone without any major hurricane landfalls since the eight years between 1861-1868.
• The longest period the state of Florida has been not been impacted was a five-year period between 1980-1984
• From 1916-1965 (50 years), 20 major hurricanes hit the Florida Peninsula and/or East Coast.  
• From 1966-2015 (50 years), only 8 majors have made landfall in the same area.

The first of CSU's seasonal updates will be issued on April 14th, 2016.

Meanwhile, El Nino's predicted wetter colder winter in Florida seems to have ended in February as March has been warm & dry!   Nice recap on this from the Fort Meyer News-Press.


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Happy New Year! Alex is here!

Like a split between continents, subtropical Alex has become the first huriccane to form in the month of January since 1938 and the first to occur during this month since Alice in 1955.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 MPH.  More details:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ALEX

10 Years without much to Blog About

Ten years without landfall in Florida makes us complacent and those who weren't here in 2004 or earlier, have no idea.  

I'm very happy not to have anything to say!!

Stalking Joaquin....

Predicted to head north up the east coast, NYC, NJ, and others will be over prepared this time so as not to have a Sandy repeat.

Near Peak No Storms

For 1st time in 38 years, there are no active Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones as we are near the peak of Atlantic season - @weatherchannel

http://wxch.nl/1Qw97Bx

Hoping we don't have to say Grace next week

Update 9/7/15:  Grace is expected to weaken 

Fred!

Erika gets no respect in Florida

Erika dissipates. Florida continues to avoid. What's next?

TD6 forms and heads west towards Cape Verde Islands

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

UPDATE:  And within hours of this post:  FRED has formed. According to the National Hurricane Center, this only the fourth named storm to form east of 19W parallel.