October is the 3rd Most Active Month of Hurricane Season

While September is traditionally the busiest month, and it was this year, October is also historically active.  Especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.  The Weather Channel data shows October averages show 2 storms per year:

And here's where they have originated in the first 10 days of the month:

We're looking forward to getting past October.  The season ends in 60 days, so we're only 2/3 of the way through.

Tropical Depression 16 Forms

Headed North/Northeast towards east coast of Florida

Details here

15 turned into Matthew & went to Central America, but.....

The next one being watched could come up through Cuba towards Florida. 

Some Florida TV station weather meteorologists are suggesting keeping an eye out on a disturbance that could become a Tropical Depression and a tropical storm late next week. 

Models suggest a north or north east path up towards the peninsula.

Tropical Depression 15 could be the one for Florida to watch...

Watching local ABC affiliate last night, perennial correct Tampa Bay forecaster, Denis Phillips, says to keep an eye on this area of the Caribbean this week for possible Tropical Depression formation.  Now that Lisa has formed in the Atlantic, right now it would be TD 15.  He said that historically 95% of all Tropical storms formed in this area, travel north.

Late September and October is peak for Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean storm formation that could affect Florida.  

Stay tuned.

Earl from International Space Station (photo)

Where are those tropical storms?

Not that I'm complaining.


Andy Johnson, meteorologist at the Fox TV affiliate in Tampa points out that there have only been 15 named storms in the entire Northern Hemisphere so far this year and it's the lowest number of tropical cyclones to date since reliable records began in 1948. 


Dry air in the Atlantic seems to be the culprit coupled with the record heat wave in Russia.  Good news for now, but we are only 1/3 of the way through the season and coming into the peak of the season.  Andy says that long range models show things may pick up at the end of August

It's Hot Everywhere...including the Tropics

Image from Accuweather

Bonnie clouding up Tampa Bay. Rain just south at lunchtime

Cloudy outside my window.  A little breeze.  Expecting a rainy night here.  Praying for favorable impact to the oil spill area along the Gulf Coast as Bonnie strengthens & heads Northwest through the Gulf.

Here comes Bonnie...

Looks like Tropical Depression #3 will evolve into a Tropical Storm later today and skirt south of Tampa Bay but unfortunately headed toward the Oil Spill in the Gulf

Stuck in the middle!

Tampa Bay sits in spaghetti model field as of July 21st...time to start paying attention....

The National Hurricane Center projects that "Invest 97L" has a 60-percent chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.  Tampa Bay weather forecasters are saying this is probably mostly a rainmaker on Friday for us.